More lockdowns prompt downward revisions

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 250 economists updates its baseline global economic outlook using the Global Economic Model, the only fully integrated economic forecasting framework of its kind.

November / December 2020

  • The recent surge in Covid-19 cases that has prompted key European economies to re-impose national lockdowns has led us to downgrade our near-term global GDP forecast.
  • We now expect world GDP to fall 4.2% this year and have lowered our 2021 growth forecast from 5.2% to 4.9%.
  • Q3 GDP releases show that the post lockdown surge in activity was even stronger than expected, but more recent economic and health data confirm that the world has now entered a slower growth phase, with parts of Europe likely to experience a double-dip in Q4 as their economies go into lockdown again.

Fill out the form to download the free executive summary of our global economic forecast.

Journalists: if you are a member of the media, please do not submit this form but instead complete the media form on this page or contact our communications team.

Download free report