Navigating the Delta downturn
Presenter: Chief Economist, Sarah Hunter
Monday, 13th of September 2021 | 11:00 am - 12:00pm AEST
The Delta variant of the coronavirus is putting a dent in re-opening and recovery plans around the world and has severely disrupted the Australian economy in the second half of this year. Many sectors in the domestic economy were on a strong recovery path before the current lockdowns.
The question now is will this momentum carry through the current restrictions, what restrictions are likely to be in place as the vaccination rollout continues, and what will the path back to normalisation look like in 2022 and beyond. In this session we will provide our forecast for the global economy, and will chart the economic recovery in Australia.
Policy's role in shaping the economic outlook
Presenter: Principal Economist, Sean Langcake
Tuesday, 14th of September 2021 | 11:00 am - 12:00 pm AEST
The current lockdowns have forced new policy responses from federal and state governments, with the introduction of the COVID disaster payment and state-specific grants for businesses.
But it remains to be seen if these actions will be as successful as JobKeeper in supporting the economy through the current crisis. The session will also discuss the outlook for monetary policy and the evolving long-term impacts of ‘economic long-COVID’ the closure of the international border.
The infrastructure boom - Are we there yet?
Presenters: Associate Director, Adrian Hart & Principal Economist Nicholas Fearnley
Wednesday, 15th of September 2021 | 1:00 pm - 2:00pm AEST
Publicly funded engineering construction activity continues to fall, despite announced government stimulus in response to the coronavirus pandemic. While work on major projects is set to ramp up, which will drive activity growth over the coming years, the outlook is very different across sectors and states. Questions remain over capacity to do work, which mean significant downside risks remain.
In this session Adrian Hart and Nicholas Fearnley will be discussing the outlook for engineering construction activity, mining activity and maintenance, including the risks of further delays. We will highlight which sectors and states have the most promising outlooks from here over the next few years, as well as discussing broader medium to longer term issues facing the engineering construction sector, including industry sustainability, capacity and capability, construction costs and funding, and investment activity.
How long can the surge in housing demand last?
Presenters: Principal Economist, Timothy Hibbert & Economist Maree Kilroy
Thursday, 16th of September 2021 | 1:00 pm - 2:00pm AEST
Despite the conclusion of stimulus measures like the HomeBuilder program, demand for new dwellings remains strong. While first home buyers are taking a breather, the investor segment is now surging. Business confidence has also improved over 2021, resulting in firms lifting their investment intentions, although the ongoing lockdowns and uncertainty about re-opening are likely to be a drag on activity in the near term.
With a considerable volume of building construction work to get through, labour and material shortages are emerging, driving cost inflation and extending project delivery timelines. In this session, we will run through BIS Oxford Economics’ near-term outlook for both residential and non-residential building, with a focus on key risks and opportunities to help navigate the environment ahead.