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Trade, central banks and governments: Policies are shifting

Conference in Luxembourg | Thursday, 8th November 2018 | 09:00 - 14:00 

Join our Global Economic Outlook conference organized by STATEC, the Chambre de Commerce Luxembourg and Oxford Economics. The conference will touch upon global and European issues such as the escalating trade war and Brexit as well as the implications on global financial markets. The conference will take place at the Chambre de Commerce Luxembourg in 7, Rue Alcide de Gasperi, Luxembourg/Kirchberg.


09:00  Registration
Welcome coffee and tea 

09:30  Introduction 
           Opening remarks by Carlo Thelen, General Director Chambre de Commerce Luxembourg

09:45  Global Economic Outlook: Global expansion: robust yet fragile
            Gabriel Sterne, Head of Global Macro Research, Oxford Economics 

  • Inflation, unfavourable policies, and tightening liquidity make markets nervous
  • Pockets of credit risk and low bank profitability pose dangers to the financial system
  • Expansions don’t die of old age, but age can foster fragilities; warning lights are on amber
  • Trade wars quite damaging to date; but its the escalation scenarios that would be very damaging

10:30  European Economic Outlook: Domestic resilience keeps ECB on normalisation path
            Oliver Rakau, Lead Eurozone Economist and Chief German Economist, Oxford Economics

  • Strong labour market bolsters domestic demand outlook
  • ECB remains on course to the QE exit
  • Slowing global trade and US trade wars threaten exporters

11:15  Coffee break 

11:30  Equities, Asset Prices and Investment Strategies: A fork in the road for global investors
           Gaurav Saroliya, Director of Global Macro Strategy, Oxford Economics                  

  • After confidently buying the US equity dip this year, we see a fork in the road
  • One path leads to more synchronous growth and recovery in non-US markets (better than 50% probability)
  • But another leads to a further weakening of global risk appetite (40% probability)
  • But these probabilities aren’t static and the scores are shifting fast

12:15  Closing remarks
           Serge Allegrezza, General Director STATEC 

12:30  Drinks reception and finger food 


We look forward to welcoming you at our conference in November!

For any questions, please do not hesitate to contact:

Fabian Krug | Business Development Manager for Luxembourg
+49 69 967 586 57 | fkrug@oxfordeconomics.com


Speaker biographies


Gabriel Sterne | Head of Global Macro Research

Gabriel Sterne works to deliver macro-economic products tailored for the financial markets. He joined from investment banking boutique Exotix in May 2014, where intense media coverage of his views made him one of the leading private sector voices on the eurocrisis (particularly Greece and Cyprus) and during the crises in Dubai, Egypt and Ukraine. He has also been an influential voice in the global policy debates on reform of the International Monetary Fund and crisis resolution policy more generally.

Gabriel has 20 years of public sector experience, most recently as Senior Manager at the Bank of England up to 2010, where he led the Bank’s project to develop a path-breaking model of systemic risk. At the Bank he was also Editor of Bank of England Working Paper and Financial Stability Papers series. In 2000 he was awarded ‘book of the year’ by Central Banking Journal for work based on largest ever survey of monetary frameworks. In between working his way round the Old Lady’s monetary analysis divisions, he was Senior Economist at the IMF Policy Development and Review Department 2005-7, and Economic Adviser to the Central Bank of Solomon Islands 1994-6. He is widely published and has spoken at conferences and provided technical assistance all over the world. 


 Oliver Rakau

Oliver Rakau | Lead Eurozone Economist and Chief German Economist

Prior to joining the company, Oliver Rakau has been a senior economist for Deutsche Bank Research in Frankfurt for over seven years primarily working on the German macroeconomy. Beyond the coverage of the German economy he provided insights on the global and European economy for the German speaking client base. Initially, he worked in the German industry research team focusing on the short-term cyclical outlook. 



Gaurav Saroliya | Director of Global Macro Strategy 

Gaurav Saroliya is responsible for our overall asset price views and for developing and delivering our investment strategy product offering. His focus is on providing thematic-research based actionable investment advice for investment managers. But his analytics are relevant for corporate Treasurers too insofar as they generate actionable dynamic hedging advice for cash-flow exposures.

Gaurav has 15 years of professional experience spanning academic research, active portfolio management and multi-asset investment strategy. As a quantitative investment researcher at State Street Global Advisors he performed fundamental fair-valuation research for fixed income and foreign exchange. At UBP asset management, he was involved with mutli-asset active portfolio management during the depths of the 2007-08 global financial crisis and beyond. He has also got experience of proprietary trading in FX and liquid rates markets at Lloyds, in addition to emerging markets fixed-income / FX research at Commerzbank and UniCredit. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Gaurav was a senior macro strategist at Lombard Street Research. Through a string of highly non-consensus calls in fixed income, FX and equities, he delivered a highly successful thematic macro-strategy research product to Lombard’s clients.