Supply Chain Crisis Scenarios

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Supply chain disruption. Recovery in domestic demand and world trade falters as the supply-chain crisis persists throughout 2022.

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Long Covid. The spread of Delta and the emergence of other variants results in a protracted period of public health restrictions.

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Return of inflation: A deteriorating outlook for inflation is met with a sharp and sustained rise in bond yields.

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Consumer Boom: Households rapidly unwind savings accumulated during the pandemic, fuelling a sharp consumer-led rebound in the global economy.

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Executive Summary

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We have cut our near-term global GDP growth forecast since the last quarter. We now expect growth of 5.7% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022.

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Although our forecast for GDP growth in 2022 is lower than the likely 2021 outturn, this year’s strength is partly down to favourable base effects. We judge that global recovery remains volatile due to supply-side problems.

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