Supply Chain Crisis Persists
Download our latest Global Scenario Report to learn more.
Download Executive Summary
What does the Global Scenario Service include?

5 Year Forecasts & Scenarios
Coverage of 80 individual economies, covering the developed world and the bulk of world GDP, plus the Eurozone and world aggregates.

Full Analysis
A report describes the baseline forecast and how each scenario develops, together with the headline results.

Complete Datasets
Access to a databank that allows users to quickly build custom queries with complete flexibility and view the data in tables, charts, and maps.

Broad Coverage
Forecasts cover key variables for output, spending, employment, inflation, interest rates, balance of payments, and government finances.
Explore the Global Scenarios Dashboard include?
Risks to our baseline forecast relate primarily to: (i) the spread of the coronavirus and associated public health measures; (ii) the strength and persistence of supply chain disruption; (iii) inflation pressures more broadly; (iv) the pace at which consumers unwind excess savings; (v) the market and policy impact of these developments; and (vi) the associated degree of economic scarring.
Why the Global Scenario Service?
The Global Scenarios Service employs the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model to explore the implications of key risks to the world economy. Each quarter our economists survey clients for input on the scenarios that we should develop and analyse their impact on our baseline forecast. Clients receive a report describing the features of the baseline forecast and of each of the five-year scenarios, with headline results and access to complete data sets.
Supply Chain Crisis Scenarios
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Supply chain disruption. Recovery in domestic demand and world trade falters as the supply-chain crisis persists throughout 2022.

Long Covid. The spread of Delta and the emergence of other variants results in a protracted period of public health restrictions.

Return of inflation: A deteriorating outlook for inflation is met with a sharp and sustained rise in bond yields.

Consumer Boom: Households rapidly unwind savings accumulated during the pandemic, fuelling a sharp consumer-led rebound in the global economy.
Executive Summary
We have cut our near-term global GDP growth forecast since the last quarter. We now expect growth of 5.7% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022.
Although our forecast for GDP growth in 2022 is lower than the likely 2021 outturn, this year’s strength is partly down to favourable base effects. We judge that global recovery remains volatile due to supply-side problems.