Delta Surge Scenarios

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Long Covid. The spread of Delta and the emergence of other variants results in a protracted period of public health restrictions.

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Consumer hesitancy. The 'return to normal' is delayed amid consumer caution, vaccine hesitancy, and a sluggish reduction in voluntary social distancing.

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Return of inflation: A deteriorating outlook for inflation is met with a sharp and sustained rise in bond yields.

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Consumer Boom: Households rapidly unwind savings accumulated during the pandemic, fuelling a sharp consumer-led rebound in the global economy.

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Executive Summary

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We have cut our near term global GDP growth forecast in response to the continued spread of the Delta coronavirus variant. Greater restrictions on activity look set to result in slower growth than previously anticipated in late 2021, pushing overall growth for the year down to 5.9%. But we have raised our 2022 world GDP growth forecast by to 4.8%.

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Compared with the upgrade to our baseline forecast, the revision to our
risk-weighted projection is smaller for 2022 but larger for 2023. Overall, we continue to expect a relatively strong global rebound.

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