Consumer Boom Scenarios
Consumer Boom. Households rapidly unwind savings accumulated during the pandemic, fuelling a sharp consumer-led rebound in the global economy.
Consumer hesitancy. The 'return to normal' is delayed amid consumer caution, vaccine hesitancy, and a sluggish reduction in voluntary social distancing.
Limited vaccine effectiveness. Restrictions remain in place for a protracted period as existing vaccines prove less effective against new, more transmissible coronavirus variants.
Return of inflation: Vaccine roll-out achieves early easing of social distancing. A deteriorating outlook for inflation is met with a sharp and sustained rise in bond yields.
We model an upside for the global economy in which consumers run down a large proportion of the substantial savings accumulated during the pandemic. In this upside scenario, sentiment is boosted for households, businesses, and investors.
The result is a more robust, consumer -led global recovery in the near term. In the first year of the scenario, global GDP rebounds to a level higher than that envisaged prior to the coronavirus outbreak. The global economy expands by 6.6% in 2021 and 5.8% in 2022