Global | Coronavirus pandemic could cut world GDP by $1tn

Africa Research Briefings (2)

 

What you'll learn

  • Using the Oxford Global Economic Model, we outline two downside scenarios
    in which the coronavirus outbreak morphs into a pandemic.
  • In one scenario, the
    pandemic is limited to Asia, and world GDP falls $0.4tn (0.5%) in 2020 compared
    to our baseline forecast. In a global pandemic, it drops $1.1tn (1.3%).
  • Our scenarios see world GDP hit as a result of declines in discretionary
    consumption and travel and tourism, with some knock-on financial market
    effects and weaker investment.

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