Global economic prospects: world GDP growth to fall to a post-crisis low

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 250 economists updates its baseline global economic outlook using the Global Economic Model, the only fully integrated economic forecasting framework of its kind.

August / September 2019

  • The US-China trade war flare-up and ongoing industrial weakness fuel concern over the outlook. We forecast world growth slowing to 2.6% in 2019, the weakest since the financial crisis, and 2.7% in 2020 – versus the 3% average of 2014-18.
  • July PMIs showed manufacturing activity down for a third month. Services have also weakened, but consumer spending looks more resilient and we expect this to bolster growth.
  • A clear risk is the US imposing new tariffs on China. We estimate this would cut global growth by just 0.1ppt in 2020, but a hit to confidence or tighter financial conditions would increase the toll.

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