Global Economic Prospects: Coronavirus inflicts a short, sharp recession on world economy

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 250 economists updates its baseline global economic outlook using the Global Economic Model, the only fully integrated economic forecasting framework of its kind.

March / April 2020

  • The coronavirus pandemic will inflict a deep recession on the world economy, and many major national economies, during the first half of 2020.
  • Over the full year, we now expect global growth to drop to zero, the second weakest in 50 years aside from 2009. In Q1 2020, we expect the global economy to shrink at a faster pace than in the financial crisis, with a 2% fall in world GDP on the quarter, and a further 0.4% Q2 decline.
  • The near-term outlook is extremely challenging. But we believe that – consistent with historical experience – the eventual resurgence will be strong, with annual growth next year rising as high as 5% in early 2021 and averaging 4.4% for the year.

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