Global economic prospects: Recession risks ease, but 2020 growth still seen at only 2.5%

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 250 economists updates its baseline global economic outlook using the Global Economic Model, the only fully integrated economic forecasting framework of its kind.

January / February 2020

  • Global growth likely softened further into 2020 but this weakening is gradual while activity and sentiment show tentative improvement.
  • US-China trade tensions have eased but we doubt this will be a major fillip, full reversal of new tariffs is a distant prospect, and this is partly offset by recent conflict between the US and Iran.
  • We see a Q1 low for global growth but doubt it will herald a strong rebound. Policy actions will start to feed through but we also doubt these are a game-changer. We forecast 2020 global growth of just 2.5%, the weakest since the global financial crisis, though with diminished downside risks.

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