Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 200 economists updates its baseline global economic outlook using the Global Economic Model, the only fully integrated economic forecasting framework of its kind.
Available data suggest that the healthy pace of world GDP growth in Q4 has been maintained into Q1. The global composite PMI rose again in February, to its highest level in almost three and a half years. .
President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on some steel and aluminium imports has increased the downside risk of a surge in protectionist measures.
Another plus is that the recent equity market sell-off has not yet morphed into a fullblown correction. h
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