Global economic prospects: Global growth in 2019 to slow to 2.5%

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 250 economists updates its baseline global economic outlook using the Global Economic Model, the only fully integrated economic forecasting framework of its kind.

March 2019 / April 2019

  • Sharply lower global trade growth and signs weakness is spreading mean we see 2019 global GDP growth of 2.5%, versus 2018's 3%.
  • A recent services pick-up gives some comfort. But key economies' retail sales have been weak and we have cut consumer spending forecasts.
  • We see H2 growth accelerating, however, due to policy changes and as temporary negatives unwind. Looser Chinese policy and dovish central banks will buoy activity so global growth should rise to 2.7% in 2020, but with downside risks.

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