Global economic prospects: growth stuck in a lower gear in 2019 and 2020

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 250 economists updates its baseline global economic outlook using the Global Economic Model, the only fully integrated economic forecasting framework of its kind.

May - June 2019

  • The global economy has seen a lacklustre start to 2019, entering its third slowdown since 2010. We expect global growth this year to be a little weaker than in 2018, at 2.8%, and then to stay stuck in a lower gear with the same pace of expansion in 2020.
  • Underlying financial conditions, a manufacturing upturn and stabilising activity in China are supportive of the outlook.
  • But with fiscal support set to wane and US-China trade relations again looking more fractious a rebound is unlikely and risks are tilted to the downside.

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