Global economic prospects: Coronavirus outbreak to cut global growth to new lows

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 250 economists updates its baseline global economic outlook using the Global Economic Model, the only fully integrated economic forecasting framework of its kind.

February / March 2020

  • Rapid spread of the coronavirus will weaken China’s growth sharply in the short-term, causing global disruption. While there were signs in early 2020 that the worst was over for world trade and manufacturing, that optimism has been dashed by the outbreak.
  • In China, we expect the near-term impact to see Q1 growth plunge to just 3.8% y/y. Although growth should then rebound, it will take time for the loss in activity to be fully recovered and we have cut our 2020 China growth forecast by 0.6pp to just 5.4%.
  • Global conditions should strengthen in H2 as the disruption fades. But we now project 2020 global growth will slow to just 2.3%, its weakest since 2009.

Fill out the form to download the free executive summary of our global economic forecast.

Journalists: if you are a member of the media, please do not submit this form but instead complete the media form on this page or contact our communications team.

Download free report