Global economic prospects: Bumping along the bottom into the new year

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 250 economists updates its baseline global economic outlook using the Global Economic Model, the only fully integrated economic forecasting framework of its kind.

December / January 2019

  • With few clear signs of recovery are emerging, we expect global growth to reach a low in early 2020 and then pick-up only gradually from there.
  • While there have been tentative signs that world industrial output and trade reached a trough in late 2019, activity in services has softened, so global growth may weaken further around the turn of the year.
  • We still see world growth bottoming-out in Q1 2020, with a pick-up following as widespread policy loosening starts to take effect. But any revival will be weak and we still expect global growth of only 2.5% this year and next.

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